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James Conner Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
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James Conner Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-105/-125) with an implied projection of 54.8 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 60.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 56.5 @ -125.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 55.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #82 percentile among running backs.He has received 47.6% of Arizona's carries this year -- #28 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Cardinals project to run 65.1 total plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.Arizona is a 13.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to runs 44.7% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Detroit Lions have ranked #29 against the run this year, holding opponents to 139 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Detroit's defense has allowed 4.64 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#24-least in football).Lions defensive ends have ranked #30 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Lions safeties have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked box 7.5% of the time this season -- #30-most in football.
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CONS:
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Conner has been the #22-leading rusher this season, tallying 51 yards per game on the ground.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has ranked #12 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Conner is projected for -4.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Arizona has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#10-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #22-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense runs the ball 38.7% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.7% of the time in this contest.Lions defensive tackles have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Lions linebackers have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Detroit Lions have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #18 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 55.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.0% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$4.55 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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