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Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 21 - AFC Championship Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Right now, Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 83.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 86.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 83.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Chase ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 89.7% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Chase ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 96.2% of Cincinnati's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Chase ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 24.1% of passes this season.Chase ranks in the #94 percentile and has put up 10.12 yards per target this season.The Chiefs's pass defense ranks #27-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 159 yards per game this season.The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 62.3 plays in this matchup, the #3-most on the game slate.The Bengals are a 7.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 62.4% of the time (#10 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Cincinnati to drop back to pass on 62.9% of their plays in this game (#3-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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CONS:
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This year, the Bengals have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.As a unit, the Chiefs cornerbacks rank #7 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.Cincinnati's O-Line grades out as the #23-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Chase open.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Chase for a 1.9% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Chase's 65.4% completion rate marks him in the #49 percentile among receivers.The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 8.49 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #21-highest among NFL opponents.The Kansas City Chiefs rank #16-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.9%.As a unit, the Chiefs safeties rank #11 in pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Chase to exceed his player prop total 52.5% of the time. He projects for 87.6 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $0.31. That makes its return on investment yield +0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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