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Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - AFC Divisional Round Game
Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Right now, Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 77.5 (-115/-105), with an implied projection of 78.7 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 92.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 77.5 @ -105.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Chase ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 89.7% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Chase ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 96.2% of Cincinnati's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Chase ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 24.1% of passes this season.Chase ranks in the #94 percentile and has put up 10.12 yards per target this season.The Titans's pass defense ranks #30-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 172 yards per game this season.The Tennessee Titans have allowed 8.62 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #25-highest among NFL opponents.The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 60.5 plays in this matchup, the #8-most on the game slate.The Bengals enter as a 4.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 62.4% of the time (#10 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Cincinnati to drop back to pass on 62.3% of their plays in this game (#5-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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CONS:
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This year, the Bengals have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.As a unit, the Titans safeties rank #2 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.Cincinnati's O-Line grades out as the #23-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Chase open.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Chase for a 2.9% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Chase's 65.4% completion rate marks him in the #50 percentile among receivers.The Tennessee Titans rank #17-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 66.3%.As a unit, the Titans cornerbacks rank #19 in pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Chase to exceed his player prop total 50.9% of the time. He projects for 78.9 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$4.41 with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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