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Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Right now, Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 67.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 66.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 67.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Chase ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 89.6% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Chase ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 96.2% of Cincinnati's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Chase ranks in the #88 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 23.4% of passes this season.Chase ranks in the #85 percentile and has put up 9.53 yards per target this season.The Bengals enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Bengals have faced the #8-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.5%).
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CONS:
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This year, the Bengals have played in the #22-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The Kansas City Chiefs rank #9-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 64.6%.As a unit, the Chiefs cornerbacks rank #3 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Chiefs safeties rank #5 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #29-fastest paced offense this season.Cincinnati has run play-action on 23.8% of their passes this year, #23-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Chase for a -0.4% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Chase's 63.0% completion rate marks him in the #42 percentile among receivers.The Chiefs's pass defense ranks #19-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 158 yards per game this season.The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 7.95 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #12-highest among NFL opponents.The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 63.5 plays in this matchup, the #11-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.6% of the time (#13 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Cincinnati to drop back to pass on 59.8% of their plays in this game (#16-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Cincinnati's O-Line grades out as the #22-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Chase open.Cincinnati's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.42 seconds on average this year (#12-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Chase to exceed his player prop total 47.0% of the time. He projects for 63.4 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$1.05 with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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