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Ja'Marr Chase

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals
Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 63.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 66.5 @ -115.
  • Chase has been on the field for 89.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 96.1% of Cincinnati's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #98 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 24.2% -- #91 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.36 yards per target this season, ranking in the #78 percentile.
  • Denver Broncos cornerbacks rank as the #26 unit in pass coverage.
  • Cincinnati is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cincinnati has faced the #8-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.5%).

  • CONS:
  • Cincinnati has played in the #21-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The Broncos have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 60.3% of their targets this season, (#29-most in the league).
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Bengals project to run 58.3 plays in this contest, the #32-most of the week.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cincinnati Bengals have run play-action on 23.8% of their passes this year, #23-most in the NFL.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Chase is projected for -0.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #44 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Chase has been in the #38 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 62.6% completion rate.
  • Denver's defense has allowed 160 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#15-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #22-most yards per target (7.88) against the Broncos this season.
  • Denver Broncos safeties rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offense passes the ball 60.1% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 59.2% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Chase's offensive line has been #22 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Bengals offensive line has given the QB 2.42 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#12-most time in the league).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 63.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 47.7% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$2.62 and with a negative ROI of -2%.

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