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Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions
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Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-105/-130) with an implied projection of 52.4 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 58.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 54.5 @ -130.
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PROS:
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He has received 48.2% of Detroit's carries this year -- #26 percentile when it comes to running backs.Detroit has played in 9 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#2-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 42.3% of the time in a neutral context (#5 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.3% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 41.6% of the time in this contest (#10 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Atlanta Falcons have ranked #24 against the run this year, holding opponents to 125 yards per game on the ground.Falcons defensive tackles have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Falcons linebackers have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Falcons safeties have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Detroit Lions have faced a stacked box 12.4% of the time this season -- #23-most in football.The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 7.8% of the time this season, ranking as the #30 most in the league.
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CONS:
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The Detroit Lions offensive line has ranked #32 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Williams is projected for -13.5% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Detroit is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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Williams has been the #31-leading rusher this season, tallying 46 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 35.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #57 percentile among running backs.The Detroit Lions have had the #17-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Lions project to run 62.9 total plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.In terms of efficiency, Atlanta's defense has allowed 4.55 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#19-least in football).Falcons defensive ends have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 41.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 37.8% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $12.97. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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