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Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
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Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 61.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 60.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has received 46.2% of Detroit's carries this year -- #28 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Williams is projected for 17.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Detroit has played in 7 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#3-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 42.2% of the time in a neutral context (#6 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.2% of the time in this contest.The Minnesota Vikings have ranked #28 against the run this year, holding opponents to 131 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Minnesota's defense has allowed 4.77 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#27-least in football).Vikings defensive ends have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Vikings linebackers have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Detroit Lions have faced a stacked box 12.4% of the time this season -- #23-most in football.
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CONS:
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The Detroit Lions offensive line has ranked #32 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Lions passing the ball more than usual.Detroit is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.Vikings safeties have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Minnesota Vikings have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 16.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #10 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Williams has been the #35-leading rusher this season, tallying 43 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 34.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #53 percentile among running backs.The Detroit Lions have had the #19-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Lions project to run 62.5 total plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.This offenses projects to runs 38.6% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Vikings defensive tackles have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 67.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $3.10. It's return on investment would yeild 3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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