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Jamaal Williams

Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 61.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 60.5 @ -115.
  • He has received 46.2% of Detroit's carries this year -- #28 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Williams is projected for 17.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • Detroit has played in 7 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#3-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • This offense runs the ball 42.2% of the time in a neutral context (#6 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.2% of the time in this contest.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have ranked #28 against the run this year, holding opponents to 131 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Minnesota's defense has allowed 4.77 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#27-least in football).
  • Vikings defensive ends have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Vikings linebackers have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Detroit Lions have faced a stacked box 12.4% of the time this season -- #23-most in football.

  • CONS:
  • The Detroit Lions offensive line has ranked #32 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Lions passing the ball more than usual.
  • Detroit is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Vikings safeties have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 16.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #10 most in the league.

  • Williams has been the #35-leading rusher this season, tallying 43 yards per game on the ground.
  • He has been on the field for 34.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #53 percentile among running backs.
  • The Detroit Lions have had the #19-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Lions project to run 62.5 total plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.
  • This offenses projects to runs 38.6% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Vikings defensive tackles have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 67.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.9% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $3.10. It's return on investment would yeild 3%.

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