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Jalen Reagor Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Right now, Jalen Reagor Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to run 65.5 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.The Eagles are a 7.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.Philadelphia's O-Line grades out as the #4-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Reagor open.
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CONS:
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Reagor ranks in the #8 percentile and has put up 5.71 yards per target this season.Reagor's 60.2% completion rate marks him in the #31 percentile among receivers.The weather forecast for this game calls for 18-mph wind. This is important because high winds lead to fewer pass completions.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed 7.19 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #2-highest among NFL opponents.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank #7-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 62.7%.As a unit, the Buccaneers cornerbacks rank #10 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Buccaneers safeties rank #4 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 53.7% of the time (#32 in the NFL).
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Reagor ranks in the #64 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 63.7% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Reagor ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 76.1% of Philadelphia's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Reagor ranks in the #56 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 12.6% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Reagor for a -1.1% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Buccaneers's pass defense ranks #19-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 149 yards per game this season.In a neutral context, Philadelphia has run the #16-fastest paced offense this season.THE BLITZ projects Philadelphia to drop back to pass on 49.3% of their plays in this game (#12-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Reagor to exceed his player prop total 50.7% of the time. He projects for 16.0 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.51 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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