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Jalen Reagor Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Washington Football Team vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Right now, Jalen Reagor Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 18.9 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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The WFT's pass defense ranks #30-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 187 yards per game this season.The Washington Football Team have allowed 8.98 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #27-highest among NFL opponents.The Washington Football Team rank #29-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 69.6%.As a unit, the WFT safeties rank #24 in pass coverage.The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to run 63.5 plays in this matchup, the #10-most on the game slate.Philadelphia's O-Line grades out as the #4-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Reagor open.Philadelphia has run play-action on 32.4% of their passes this year, #5-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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Reagor ranks in the #10 percentile and has put up 5.72 yards per target this season.Reagor's 60.3% completion rate marks him in the #32 percentile among receivers.The Eagles enter as a 6.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 54.3% of the time (#32 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Philadelphia to drop back to pass on 46.8% of their plays in this game (#31-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Philadelphia's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.56 seconds on average this year (#26-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Reagor ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 65.1% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Reagor ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 75.1% of Philadelphia's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Reagor ranks in the #60 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 13.4% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Reagor for a -0.4% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.As a unit, the WFT cornerbacks rank #14 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Philadelphia has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Eagles have faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.0%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Reagor to exceed his player prop total 54.8% of the time. He projects for 23.5 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $5.08. That makes its return on investment yield +5%.
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