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Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Right now, Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 190.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 203.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 190.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to run 65.5 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.The Eagles are a 7.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.Philadelphia's O-Line grades out as the #4-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tampa Bay's defensive ends rank #25 this season.
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CONS:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #31-best in the league, completing passes at a 60.5% clip.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 53.7% of the time (#32 in the NFL).In terms of passing efficiency, Tampa Bay's defense is #3-best. This is because they allowed 6.96 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #10-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #4-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tampa Bay's defensive tackles rank #6 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #26-best in the league, Hurts has passed for207 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Hurts has been #17 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.19 yards per target.This year, the Eagles have played in 5 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #13-most in football and means Hurts's numbers may be artificially inflated.In a neutral context, Philadelphia has run the #16-fastest paced offense this season.THE BLITZ projects Philadelphia to drop back to pass on 49.3% of their plays in this game (#12-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Tampa Bay's #22-ranked pass defense has allowed 238 passing yards per game this year.Tampa Bay has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.2% of their targets, which ranks them #17-best in the NFL.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #11-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tampa Bay's linebackers rank #18 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Hurts to exceed his player prop total 45.2% of the time. He projects for 178.5 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $5.02. That makes its return on investment yield +5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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