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Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Washington Football Team vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Right now, Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 202.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 203.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 202.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to run 63.5 plays in this matchup, the #10-most on the game slate.Philadelphia's O-Line grades out as the #4-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Philadelphia has run play-action on 32.4% of their passes this year, #5-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Washington's #30-ranked pass defense has allowed 276 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Washington's defense is #25-best. This is because they allowed 8.09 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Washington Football Team have had the #24-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Washington Football Team have had the #32-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Washington's defensive ends rank #28 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Washington's linebackers rank #23 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, at #29-best in the league, Hurts has passed for208 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #31-best in the league, completing passes at a 60.6% clip.The Eagles enter as a 6.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 54.3% of the time (#32 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Philadelphia to drop back to pass on 46.8% of their plays in this game (#31-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Philadelphia's offensive has kept pressure off Jalen Hurts for 2.56 seconds on average this year (#26-most in the NFL).When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Washington's defensive tackles rank #2 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of efficiency, Hurts has been #18 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.18 yards per target.This year, the Eagles have played in 5 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #12-most in football and means Hurts's numbers may be artificially inflated.In a neutral context, Philadelphia has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Eagles have faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.0%).Washington has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.0% of their targets, which ranks them #18-best in the NFL.The Washington Football Team have had the #14-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the WFT, they've stacked the box on 13.2% of their plays this season, #20-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Hurts to exceed his player prop total 53.3% of the time. He projects for 211.1 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.36 with a negative ROI of 0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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