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Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 203.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 201.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 203.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #9-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Eagles project to run 64.9 plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.Jalen Hurts's offensive line has been #8 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Philadelphia Eagles have run play-action on 33.0% of their passes this year, #4-most in the NFL.The New York Giants enter this game with the #25-best pass defense this season, allowing 269 yards per game through the air.The Giants have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.0% of their targets, ranking #25 in the NFL.The New York Giants have had the #24-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The New York Giants have had the #31-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Giants defensive ends have ranked #31 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Giants linebackers have ranked #30 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.New York's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 3 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #29-quickest in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Hurts has passed for 207 yards per game this year, #28-best in the league.He's been the #27-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 60.7% clip.Philadelphia has played in the #9-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year, which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Philadelphia is a 3.5-point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 56.1% of the time in a neutral context (#32 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 50.2% of the time in this contest (#29 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.New York's defense has been #10-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.51 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New York Giants have had the #4-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The New York Giants have stacked the box on 8.7% of their plays this season, #29-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Efficiency-wise, Hurts has been #21 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.12 yards per target.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Philadelphia have faced the #20-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#13.2%).Giants defensive tackles have ranked #14 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 217.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $4.13. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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