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Jalen Guyton Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Right now, Jalen Guyton Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 17.5 (100/-135), with an implied projection of 15.6 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -135.
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PROS:
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Guyton ranks in the #91 percentile and has put up 10.05 yards per target this season.Guyton's 68.9% completion rate marks him in the #71 percentile among receivers.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.The Las Vegas Raiders rank #23-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 67.4%.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #5-fastest paced offense this season.The Los Angeles Chargers are projected to run 64.6 plays in this matchup, the #6-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 66.2% of the time (#4 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Los Angeles to drop back to pass on 64.2% of their plays in this game (#7-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Los Angeles's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.40 seconds on average this year (#7-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Los Angeles has run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Chargers have faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).
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CONS:
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The Raiders's pass defense ranks #2-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 129 yards per game this season.The Las Vegas Raiders have allowed 7.34 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #4-highest among NFL opponents.The Chargers enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Guyton ranks in the #54 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 51.2% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Guyton ranks in the #57 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 61.9% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Guyton ranks in the #38 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 6.9% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Guyton for a -1.4% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.As a unit, the Raiders cornerbacks rank #15 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Raiders safeties rank #17 in pass coverage.Los Angeles's O-Line grades out as the #12-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Guyton open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Guyton to exceed his player prop total 49.9% of the time. He projects for 17.4 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.18 with a negative ROI of 0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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