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Jalen Guyton

Jalen Guyton Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Jalen Guyton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -115.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.29 yards per target this season, ranking in the #93 percentile.
  • Los Angeles has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Chargers project to run 65.2 plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.
  • Los Angeles is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 67.9% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 66.7% of the time in this contest (#2 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Chargers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Chargers have run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).

  • CONS:
  • The Chiefs have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.2% of their targets this season, (#23-most in the league).
  • Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks rank as the #2 unit in pass coverage.
  • Kansas City Chiefs safeties rank as the #6 unit in pass coverage.

  • Guyton has been on the field for 56.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #60 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 63.7% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #57 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 7.0% -- #39 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Guyton is projected for 0.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #54 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Guyton has been in the #50 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 64.9% completion rate.
  • Kansas City's defense has allowed 158 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#18-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #19-most yards per target (8.20) against the Chiefs this season.
  • Guyton's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 22.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.3% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$3.78 and with a negative ROI of -3%.

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