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Jakobi Meyers Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
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Right now, Jakobi Meyers Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 44.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 40.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 44.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Meyers ranks in the #83 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 81.0% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Meyers ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 91.7% of New England's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Meyers ranks in the #88 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 23.7% of passes this season.Meyers's 69.3% completion rate marks him in the #71 percentile among receivers.The New England Patriots are projected to run 63.9 plays in this matchup, the #9-most on the game slate.The Patriots enter as a 4.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects New England to drop back to pass on 57.6% of their plays in this game (#10-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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CONS:
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The Bills's pass defense ranks #1-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 115 yards per game this season.The Buffalo Bills have allowed 6.36 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #1-highest among NFL opponents.The Buffalo Bills rank #3-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 60.9%.As a unit, the Bills cornerbacks rank #9 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Bills safeties rank #1 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, New England has run the #25-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.6% of the time (#25 in the NFL).
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Meyers for a -0.7% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Meyers ranks in the #39 percentile and has put up 7.65 yards per target this season.New England's O-Line grades out as the #15-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Meyers open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Meyers to exceed his player prop total 47.5% of the time. He projects for 41.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $0.29. That makes its return on investment yield +0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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