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Jakobi Meyers Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
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Jakobi Meyers Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 52.4 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Meyers has been on the field for 88.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #94 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 93.8% of New England's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #95 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 23.9% -- #89 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Tennessee's defense has allowed 196 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#1-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #9-most yards per target (8.93) against the Titans this season.The Patriots offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New England has faced the #1-most stacked boxes in the league this year (25.7%).
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.02 yards per target this season, ranking in the #7 percentile.Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the #2 unit in pass coverage.The New England Patriots have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.New England is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 55.7% of the time in this contest (#27 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Meyers is projected for -0.9% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #44 percentile among wide receivers.Meyers has been in the #57 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 68.9% completion rate.The Titans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.4% of their targets this season, (#14-most in the league).Tennessee Titans cornerbacks rank as the #12 unit in pass coverage.The Patriots project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 60.7% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL).Meyers's offensive line has been #12 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New England Patriots have run play-action on 26.5% of their passes this year, #13-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 53.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.96 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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