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Jake Fromm Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
New York Giants vs Washington Football Team
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Right now, Jake Fromm Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 166.5 (-105/-125), with an implied projection of 163.0 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 167.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 166.5 @ -125.
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PROS:
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This year, the Giants have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Fromm's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.In a neutral context, New York has run the #9-fastest paced offense this season.The Giants enter as a 6.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.New York's offensive has kept pressure off Jake Fromm for 2.38 seconds on average this year (#4-most in the NFL).New York has run play-action on 31.1% of their passes this year, #7-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Washington's #28-ranked pass defense has allowed 270 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Washington's defense is #24-best. This is because they allowed 8.06 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Washington Football Team have had the #24-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Washington Football Team have had the #31-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Washington's defensive ends rank #30 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Washington's linebackers rank #24 this season.
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CONS:
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THE BLITZ projects New York to drop back to pass on 51.9% of their plays in this game (#27-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.New York's O-Line grades out as the #28-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Washington's defensive tackles rank #2 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The New York Giants are projected to run 62.8 plays in this matchup, the #15-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 60.3% of the time (#18 in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Giants have faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.9%).Washington has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.9% of their targets, which ranks them #21-best in the NFL.The Washington Football Team have had the #16-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the WFT, they've stacked the box on 13.2% of their plays this season, #20-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Fromm to exceed his player prop total 46.3% of the time. He projects for 157.6 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$4.27 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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