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Jake Fromm Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
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Jake Fromm Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 194.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 192.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 194.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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New York has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind) this year, which saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The New York Giants have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.New York is a 11.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offense passes the ball 63.0% of the time in a neutral context (#10 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 62.6% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Giants offensive line has given Jake Fromm 2.38 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#4-best in football).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Giants have run play-action on 31.1% of their passes this year, #7-most in the NFL.The Eagles have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74.4% of their targets, ranking #31-best in the NFL.Philadelphia's safeties grade out as the #29-best in pass coverage this year.Philadelphia's linebackers grade out as the #24-best in pass coverage this year.
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CONS:
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Jake Fromm's offensive line has been #29 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Philadelphia Eagles defense ranks #10-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.43.Philadelphia's cornerbacks grade out as the #1-best in pass coverage this year.Eagles defensive tackles have ranked #3 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Giants project to run 62.8 plays in this contest, the #19-most of the week.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York have faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.9%).The Philadelphia Eagles enter this game with the #13-best pass defense this season, allowing 241 yards per game through the air.Eagles defensive ends have ranked #18 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Eagles linebackers have ranked #14 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Philadelphia Eagles have stacked the box on 15.4% of their plays this season, #14-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Fromm putting up 224.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.4% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $17.10. Its return on investment would yield +15%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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