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Ian Book Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins
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Right now, Ian Book Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 186.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 183.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 186.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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New Orleans's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to complete passes.The Saints enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Saints have faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (18.3%).Miami's #29-ranked pass defense has allowed 272 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Miami's defense is #24-best. This is because they allowed 7.99 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Miami's defensive tackles rank #31 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Dolphins, they've stacked the box on 18.2% of their plays this season, #9-most in football.
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CONS:
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This year, the Saints have played in 7 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #6-most in football and means Book's numbers may be artificially inflated.The New Orleans Saints are projected to run 61.1 plays in this matchup, the #27-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.3% of the time (#30 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects New Orleans to drop back to pass on 50.2% of their plays in this game (#31-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.The Miami Dolphins have had the #5-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Miami's defensive ends rank #10 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In a neutral context, New Orleans has run the #21-fastest paced offense this season.New Orleans's O-Line grades out as the #19-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.New Orleans has run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Miami has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.3% of their targets, which ranks them #12-best in the NFL.The Miami Dolphins have had the #19-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Miami Dolphins have had the #19-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Miami's linebackers rank #13 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Book to exceed his player prop total 55.5% of the time. He projects for 200.5 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $4.33. That makes its return on investment yield +4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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