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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -115.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 12.01 yards per target this season, ranking in the #100 percentile.
  • Davis has been in the #69 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 68.5% completion rate.
  • Buffalo has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • This offense passes the ball 68.0% of the time in a neutral context (#3 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 65.4% of the time in this contest (#5 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Buffalo Bills have run play-action on 32.5% of their passes this year, #4-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Davis is projected for -9.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #16 percentile among wide receivers.
  • New England's defense has allowed 129 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#31-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #26-most yards per target (7.54) against the Patriots this season.
  • The Patriots have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 59.6% of their targets this season, (#30-most in the league).
  • New England Patriots safeties rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Bills project to run 60.0 plays in this contest, the #31-most of the week.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Buffalo has faced the #27-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.7%).

  • Davis has been on the field for 42.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #43 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 43.0% of Buffalo's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #40 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 9.2% -- #51 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the #15 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Buffalo Bills have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Davis's offensive line has been #20 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Bills offensive line has given the QB 2.49 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#21-most time in the league).


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