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Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers
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Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 43.3 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 41.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Davis is projected for 8.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #99 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 11.49 yards per target this season, ranking in the #98 percentile.Buffalo has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Opposing wideouts have put up the #9-most yards per target (8.79) against the Panthers this season.The Panthers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 72.6% of their targets this season, (#2-most in the league).The Bills project to run 64.2 plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 68.2% of the time in a neutral context (#3 in the NFL).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Buffalo Bills have run play-action on 32.5% of their passes this year, #4-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Carolina's defense has allowed 137 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#26-most in football).Buffalo is a 14.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Buffalo has faced the #27-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.7%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Davis has been on the field for 39.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #41 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 39.7% of Buffalo's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #38 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 8.2% -- #44 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Davis has been in the #65 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 67.8% completion rate.Carolina Panthers cornerbacks rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.The Buffalo Bills have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offenses projects to pass 58.6% of the time in this contest (#18 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Davis's offensive line has been #14 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Bills offensive line has given the QB 2.49 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#21-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 46.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.8% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.71 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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