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Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills
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Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 23.1 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 12.62 yards per target this season, ranking in the #100 percentile.Buffalo has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Bills project to run 64.0 plays in this contest, the #7-most of the week.Buffalo is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offense passes the ball 68.0% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 66.7% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Davis's offensive line has been #11 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Buffalo Bills have run play-action on 32.5% of their passes this year, #4-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Opposing wideouts have put up the #29-most yards per target (7.37) against the Buccaneers this season.The Buccaneers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 63.6% of their targets this season, (#24-most in the league).Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the #6 unit in pass coverage.Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the #4 unit in pass coverage.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Buffalo has faced the #27-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.7%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Davis has been on the field for 35.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #38 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 34.8% of Buffalo's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #34 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 7.3% -- #40 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Davis is projected for 1.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #75 percentile among wide receivers.Davis has been in the #63 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 67.4% completion rate.Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 164 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#14-most in football).The Buffalo Bills have had the #19-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bills offensive line has given the QB 2.49 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#21-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 31.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.47. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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