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Freddie Swain Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions
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Right now, Freddie Swain Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 15.0 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This year, the Seahawks have played in the #10-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Swain's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.The Detroit Lions have allowed 8.65 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #23-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Lions cornerbacks rank #31 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Seattle has run the #3-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 62.8% of the time (#10 in the NFL).
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CONS:
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Swain ranks in the #14 percentile and has put up 6.49 yards per target this season.Bad weather has been shown to have a negative impact on a receiver's numbers, and the weatherman currently calls for rain in this game.The Detroit Lions rank #10-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 64.9%.The Seattle Seahawks are projected to run 61.7 plays in this matchup, the #25-most on the game slate.The Seahawks are a 9.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects Seattle to drop back to pass on 52.3% of their plays in this game (#28-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Seattle's O-Line grades out as the #26-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Swain open.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Seahawks have faced the #28-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.2%).
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Swain ranks in the #64 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 62.4% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Swain ranks in the #60 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 67.3% of Seattle's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Swain ranks in the #47 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 8.9% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Swain for a -0.9% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Swain's 63.2% completion rate marks him in the #43 percentile among receivers.The Lions's pass defense ranks #14-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 153 yards per game this season.As a unit, the Lions safeties rank #20 in pass coverage.Seattle's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.51 seconds on average this year (#22-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Seattle has run play-action on 25.1% of their passes this year, #19-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Swain to exceed his player prop total 50.0% of the time. He projects for 15.5 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.02 with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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