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Freddie Swain Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Washington Football Team vs Seattle Seahawks
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Freddie Swain Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Seattle has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Washington's defense has allowed 186 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#4-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #8-most yards per target (8.98) against the WFT this season.The WFT have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 70.6% of their targets this season, (#4-most in the league).Washington Football Team cornerbacks rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Seahawks project to run 63.8 plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 62.4% of the time in a neutral context (#11 in the NFL).
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CONS:
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Swain's offensive line has been #23 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Seahawks offensive line has given the QB 2.50 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#24-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Seattle has faced the #28-most stacked boxes in the league this year (8.8%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Swain has been on the field for 64.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 69.8% of Seattle's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #63 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 10.5% -- #53 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Swain is projected for -1.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #39 percentile among wide receivers.Washington Football Team safeties rank as the #20 unit in pass coverage.This offenses projects to pass 58.2% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Seattle Seahawks have run play-action on 24.9% of their passes this year, #21-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 19.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $3.81. It's return on investment would yeild 3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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