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Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Football Team
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Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 52.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Dallas Cowboys offensive line has ranked #2 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 59.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #88 percentile among running backs.He has received 56.2% of Dallas's carries this year -- #16 percentile when it comes to running backs.Dallas has played in 9 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#2-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #2-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Cowboys project to run 66.6 total plays in this contest, the #1-most of the week.Dallas is a 10.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
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CONS:
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Elliott has been the #14-leading rusher this season, tallying 62 yards per game on the ground.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Cowboys passing the ball more than usual.This offense runs the ball 36.7% of the time in a neutral context (#24 in the NFL), and they project to run 36.7% of the time in this contest.WFT defensive ends have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.WFT safeties have ranked #8 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Elliott is projected for -1.4% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.This offenses projects to runs 39.2% of the time in this contest (#18 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Washington Football Team have ranked #11 against the run this year, holding opponents to 107 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Washington's defense has allowed 4.50 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#16-least in football).WFT defensive tackles have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.WFT linebackers have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked box 14.0% of the time this season -- #16-most in football.The Washington Football Team have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 13.2% of the time this season, ranking as the #20 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 59.9 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.1% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $5.57. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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