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Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 55.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -115.
  • The Dallas Cowboys offensive line has ranked #2 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has been on the field for 59.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #87 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 55.4% of Dallas's carries this year -- #17 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Dallas has played in 9 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#2-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have had the #2-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Cowboys project to run 68.4 total plays in this contest, the #1-most of the week.
  • Dallas is a 12.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to runs 44.7% of the time in this contest (#10 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The New York Giants have ranked #25 against the run this year, holding opponents to 127 yards per game on the ground.
  • The New York Giants have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #29 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • Elliott has been the #14-leading rusher this season, tallying 62 yards per game on the ground.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Elliott is projected for -0.4% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • This offense runs the ball 36.9% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL), and they project to run 36.9% of the time in this contest.
  • In terms of efficiency, New York's defense has allowed 4.59 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#22-least in football).
  • Giants defensive ends have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Giants defensive tackles have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Giants linebackers have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Giants safeties have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked box 14.0% of the time this season -- #16-most in football.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 75.9 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 64.7% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $24.17. It's return on investment would yeild 21%.

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