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Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys
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Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 67.5 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 58.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 66.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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The Dallas Cowboys offensive line has ranked #2 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 58.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #85 percentile among running backs.He has received 57.3% of Dallas's carries this year -- #16 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Elliott is projected for 10.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Dallas has played in 9 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#2-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #2-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Cowboys project to run 66.2 total plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.Dallas is a 6.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.WFT linebackers have ranked #30 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Elliott has been the #12-leading rusher this season, tallying 64 yards per game on the ground.The Washington Football Team have ranked #4 against the run this year, holding opponents to 94 yards per game on the ground.WFT defensive ends have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.WFT defensive tackles have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.WFT safeties have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This offense runs the ball 37.2% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL), and they project to run 37.2% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 41.7% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.In terms of efficiency, Washington's defense has allowed 4.36 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#13-least in football).Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked box 14.0% of the time this season -- #16-most in football.The Washington Football Team have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 13.2% of the time this season, ranking as the #20 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 83.5 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $14.88. It's return on investment would yeild 12%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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