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Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-115/-115).
  • The Dallas Cowboys offensive line has ranked #2 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has been on the field for 58.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #85 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 57.0% of Dallas's carries this year -- #17 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Dallas has played in 8 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#2-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Dallas is a 6.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to runs 41.4% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • CONS:
  • Elliott has been the #12-leading rusher this season, tallying 65 yards per game on the ground.
  • The Cowboys project to run 61.1 total plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.
  • The New Orleans Saints have ranked #5 against the run this year, holding opponents to 92 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, New Orleans's defense has allowed 3.50 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#1-least in football).
  • Saints defensive ends have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Saints defensive tackles have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Saints linebackers have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Saints safeties have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Elliott is projected for -3.2% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • This offense runs the ball 37.5% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL), and they project to run 37.5% of the time in this contest.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked box 14.0% of the time this season -- #16-most in football.
  • The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 13.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #19 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 53.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.1% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $7.79. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.

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