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Emmanuel Sanders

Emmanuel Sanders Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Emmanuel Sanders Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -115.

PROS:

Sanders has been on the field for 82.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #85 percentile among wide receivers.

He has run a route on 88.2% of Buffalo's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #86 percentile among wide receivers.

His target share this season has been 16.0% -- #69 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Sanders is projected for 4.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #88 percentile among wide receivers.

In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.82 yards per target this season, ranking in the #88 percentile.

Buffalo has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.

This offense passes the ball 68.0% of the time in a neutral context (#3 in the NFL).

This offenses projects to pass 65.4% of the time in this contest (#5 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Buffalo Bills have run play-action on 32.5% of their passes this year, #4-most in the NFL.

CONS:

New England's defense has allowed 129 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#31-most in football).

Opposing wideouts have put up the #26-most yards per target (7.54) against the Patriots this season.

The Patriots have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 59.6% of their targets this season, (#30-most in the league).

New England Patriots safeties rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.

The Bills project to run 60.0 plays in this contest, the #31-most of the week.

Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Buffalo has faced the #27-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.7%).

NEUTRAL:

Sanders has been in the #41 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 62.0% completion rate.

New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the #15 unit in pass coverage.

The Buffalo Bills have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

Sanders's offensive line has been #20 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

The Bills offensive line has given the QB 2.49 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#21-most time in the league).

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 55.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.8% of the time.

THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $15.78. It's return on investment would yeild 14%.

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