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Emmanuel Sanders Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
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Emmanuel Sanders Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Sanders has been on the field for 82.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #85 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 88.5% of Buffalo's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #86 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 15.6% -- #67 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.03 yards per target this season, ranking in the #87 percentile.Buffalo has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.This offense passes the ball 68.2% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Buffalo Bills have run play-action on 32.5% of their passes this year, #4-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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New England's defense has allowed 139 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#26-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #26-most yards per target (7.73) against the Patriots this season.The Patriots have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 60.7% of their targets this season, (#29-most in the league).New England Patriots safeties rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.Buffalo is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Buffalo has faced the #27-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.7%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Sanders is projected for -0.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #55 percentile among wide receivers.Sanders has been in the #38 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 61.8% completion rate.New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the #11 unit in pass coverage.The Buffalo Bills have had the #17-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bills project to run 62.1 plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 58.6% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Sanders's offensive line has been #12 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Bills offensive line has given the QB 2.49 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#21-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 32.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.79 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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