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Elijah Moore Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Houston Texans vs New York Jets
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Elijah Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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His target share this season has been 15.8% -- #70 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Moore is projected for 6.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.Houston's defense has allowed 183 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#5-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #1-most yards per target (9.76) against the Texans this season.The Texans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.7% of their targets this season, (#7-most in the league).Houston Texans safeties rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.The New York Jets have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 63.4% of the time in a neutral context (#10 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 62.5% of the time in this contest (#7 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
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CONS:
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Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Jets have run play-action on 21.6% of their passes this year, #28-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York has faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.4%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Moore has been on the field for 59.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #61 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 61.3% of New York's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #54 percentile among wide receivers.Houston Texans cornerbacks rank as the #20 unit in pass coverage.The Jets project to run 63.0 plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.Moore's offensive line has been #20 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Jets offensive line has given the QB 2.48 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#19-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 65.5 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $7.14. It's return on investment would yeild 6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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