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Eli Mitchell Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Eli Mitchell Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 79.5 (-110/-110).
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PROS:
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His 59.5% snap rate this year puts him in the #91 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 63.6% this year puts him in the #92 percentile among running backs.The San Francisco 49ers are projected to run 64.9 plays in this matchup, the #6-most on the game slate.San Francisco has been the #5-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 42.7% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #7-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 37.3% of their plays.The defensive tackles of Dallas have been the #28-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Dallas have been the #27-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Mitchell finds himself in the #95 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 88 yards.The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and San Francisco's ranks #31 in that regard this season.This year, the 49ers have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, San Francisco's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 0-mph wind in this game.In a neutral context, San Francisco has run the #29-fastest paced offense this season.The 49ers enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.The defensive ends of Dallas have been the #6-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Mitchell for a 2.6% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Cowboys defense has allowed 108 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #13-least in football.The Dallas Cowboys have allowed 4.43 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #16-best in the metric this season.The safeties of Dallas have been the #18-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mitchell to exceed his player prop total 43.6% of the time. He projects for 70.0 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $8.44. That makes its return on investment yield +8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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