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Eli Mitchell Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Eli Mitchell Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 73.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 72.5 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 64.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 73.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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His 65.1% snap rate this year puts him in the #96 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 63.1% this year puts him in the #93 percentile among running backs.The San Francisco 49ers are projected to run 64.0 plays in this matchup, the #9-most on the game slate.San Francisco has been the #6-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 42.2% run rate in a neutral context.San Francisco has faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (10.5% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Rams have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #32-most in the NFL this year at 4.9% of the time.
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CONS:
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Mitchell finds himself in the #95 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 88 yards.The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and San Francisco's ranks #30 in that regard this season.This year, the 49ers have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, San Francisco's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 0-mph wind in this game.In a neutral context, San Francisco has run the #29-fastest paced offense this season.The 49ers enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.The Rams defense has allowed 102 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #6-least in football.The Los Angeles Rams have allowed 4.01 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #4-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Los Angeles have been the #1-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Los Angeles have been the #2-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Los Angeles have been the #8-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Los Angeles have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Mitchell for a -0.3% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #21-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 37.3% of their plays.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mitchell to exceed his player prop total 39.7% of the time. He projects for 59.4 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $12.57. That makes its return on investment yield +10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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