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Eli Mitchell

Eli Mitchell Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17

San Francisco 49ers vs Houston Texans

Right now, Eli Mitchell Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 74.5 (-115/-115).

The money is on the Under: it opened 77.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 74.5 @ -115.

PROS:

His 66.0% snap rate this year puts him in the #96 percentile among running backs.

His carry rate of 64.1% this year puts him in the #94 percentile among running backs.

The 49ers are a 13.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.

San Francisco has been the #8-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 41.4% run rate in a neutral context.

THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #1-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 59.8% of their plays.

The Texans defense has allowed 142 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #29-least in football.

The Houston Texans have allowed 4.87 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #28-best in the metric this season.

The linebackers of Houston have been the #26-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.

The safeties of Houston have been the #32-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.

San Francisco has faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (10.5% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.

CONS:

Mitchell finds himself in the #95 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 84 yards.

The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and San Francisco's ranks #31 in that regard this season.

This week, THE BLITZ projects Mitchell for a -24.2% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.

This year, the 49ers have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, San Francisco's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.

In a neutral context, San Francisco has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.

The San Francisco 49ers are projected to run 61.4 plays in this matchup, the #27-most on the game slate.

NEUTRAL:

The defensive ends of Houston have been the #18-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.

The defensive tackles of Houston have been the #12-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.

The Texans have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #11-most in the NFL this year at 15.9% of the time.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ projects Mitchell to exceed his player prop total 51.3% of the time. He projects for 76.5 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.

While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$4.68 with a negative ROI of -4%.

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