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Duke Johnson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins
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Right now, Duke Johnson Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 32.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The defensive tackles of Tennessee have been the #23-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Tennessee have been the #25-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Miami has faced the #29-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (7.8% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Titans have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #25-most in the NFL this year at 9.9% of the time.
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CONS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Miami's ranks #26 in that regard this season.The Dolphins enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.Miami has been the #25-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 35.3% run rate in a neutral context.The Titans defense has allowed 87 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #3-least in football.The Tennessee Titans have allowed 4.01 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #4-best in the metric this season.The safeties of Tennessee have been the #5-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Johnson for a -3.1% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Dolphins have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Miami's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.In a neutral context, Miami has run the #15-fastest paced offense this season.The Miami Dolphins are projected to run 62.7 plays in this matchup, the #18-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #16-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 40.8% of their plays.The defensive ends of Tennessee have been the #16-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Johnson to exceed his player prop total 51.6% of the time. He projects for 33.9 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.97 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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