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Duke Johnson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins
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Right now, Duke Johnson Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 35.5 (-120/-110), with an implied projection of 36.2 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 33.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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The Dolphins enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Miami has faced the #29-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (7.8% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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CONS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Miami's ranks #26 in that regard this season.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 0-mph wind in this game.The Miami Dolphins are projected to run 60.6 plays in this matchup, the #30-most on the game slate.Miami has been the #26-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 34.9% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #23-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 37.8% of their plays.The Saints defense has allowed 95 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #4-least in football.The New Orleans Saints have allowed 3.82 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #1-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of New Orleans have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of New Orleans have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of New Orleans have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Johnson for a 5.4% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Dolphins have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Miami's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.In a neutral context, Miami has run the #12-fastest paced offense this season.The safeties of New Orleans have been the #11-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Saints have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #19-most in the NFL this year at 13.3% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Johnson to exceed his player prop total 48.6% of the time. He projects for 34.3 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$2.14 with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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