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Drew Lock Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Right now, Drew Lock Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 213.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 204.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 213.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, the Broncos have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The Broncos are a 11.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.Kansas City's #30-ranked pass defense has allowed 276 passing yards per game this year.Kansas City has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.5% of their targets, which ranks them #26-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Kansas City's defense is #26-best. This is because they allowed 8.12 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #23-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Kansas City's defensive tackles rank #29 this season.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, Denver has run the #30-fastest paced offense this season.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #6-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #9-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Kansas City's defensive ends rank #8 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Denver Broncos are projected to run 61.8 plays in this matchup, the #22-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 59.2% of the time (#21 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Denver to drop back to pass on 61.0% of their plays in this game (#16-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Denver's O-Line grades out as the #15-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Kansas City's linebackers rank #17 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Lock to exceed his player prop total 57.7% of the time. He projects for 233.9 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $8.99. That makes its return on investment yield +8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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