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Drew Lock Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
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Right now, Drew Lock Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 186.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 189.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 186.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, the Broncos have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The Broncos are a 8.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.Denver's offensive has kept pressure off Drew Lock for 2.55 seconds on average this year (#8-most in the NFL).The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #24-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's defensive ends rank #31 this season.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, Denver has run the #30-fastest paced offense this season.Los Angeles's #8-ranked pass defense has allowed 230 passing yards per game this year.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #5-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's defensive tackles rank #1 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's linebackers rank #1 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Denver Broncos are projected to run 62.3 plays in this matchup, the #22-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 59.8% of the time (#20 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Denver to drop back to pass on 61.6% of their plays in this game (#14-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Denver's O-Line grades out as the #15-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Denver has run play-action on 25.3% of their passes this year, #22-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Broncos have faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.4%).Los Angeles has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.7% of their targets, which ranks them #14-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Los Angeles's defense is #16-best. This is because they allowed 7.64 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #17-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Chargers, they've stacked the box on 15.6% of their plays this season, #13-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Lock to exceed his player prop total 71.8% of the time. He projects for 246.6 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $39.33. That makes its return on investment yield +34%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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