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Drew Lock Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos
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Drew Lock Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 201.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 209.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 201.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Denver has played in the #4-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Broncos offensive line has given Drew Lock 2.55 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#8-best in football).The Raiders have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.0% of their targets, ranking #27-best in the NFL.Las Vegas's linebackers grade out as the #26-best in pass coverage this year.Raiders defensive tackles have ranked #26 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box on 22.2% of their plays this season, #1-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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The Denver Broncos have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Las Vegas Raiders enter this game with the #7-best pass defense this season, allowing 229 yards per game through the air.The Las Vegas Raiders defense ranks #3-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.03.Raiders defensive ends have ranked #1 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Broncos project to run 62.3 plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 59.7% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 59.7% of the time in this contest (#18 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Drew Lock's offensive line has been #15 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Denver Broncos have run play-action on 25.3% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Denver have faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.4%).Las Vegas's cornerbacks grade out as the #16-best in pass coverage this year.Las Vegas's safeties grade out as the #15-best in pass coverage this year.Raiders linebackers have ranked #12 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Lock putting up 242.4 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 65.1% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $25.05. Its return on investment would yield +22%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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