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Dontrell Hilliard Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins
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Right now, Dontrell Hilliard Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 24.5 (-120/-110), with an implied projection of 25.0 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 25.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Tennessee's ranks #3 in that regard this season.The Titans enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Tennessee has been the #2-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 44.0% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #6-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 47.6% of their plays.
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CONS:
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This year, the Titans have played in 3 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #19-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.In a neutral context, Tennessee has run the #26-fastest paced offense this season.The Dolphins defense has allowed 102 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #7-least in football.The defensive ends of Miami have been the #4-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Tennessee has faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (22.7% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Dolphins have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #9-most in the NFL this year at 18.2% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Hilliard for a -7.2% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Tennessee Titans are projected to run 63.2 plays in this matchup, the #14-most on the game slate.The Miami Dolphins have allowed 4.45 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #15-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Miami have been the #17-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Miami have been the #22-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Miami have been the #15-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Hilliard to exceed his player prop total 51.3% of the time. He projects for 25.5 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$7.07 with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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