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Dontrell Hilliard Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
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Dontrell Hilliard Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 30.9 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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The Tennessee Titans offensive line has ranked #5 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Hilliard is projected for 10.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #88 percentile among running backs.This offense runs the ball 43.0% of the time in a neutral context (#3 in the NFL), and they project to run 43.0% of the time in this contest.Patriots defensive ends have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Patriots defensive tackles have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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The Tennessee Titans have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Titans project to run 61.5 total plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.Tennessee is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.The New England Patriots have ranked #10 against the run this year, holding opponents to 102 yards per game on the ground.Patriots linebackers have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked box 21.8% of the time this season -- #2-most in football.The New England Patriots have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.5% of the time this season, ranking as the #8 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Tennessee has played in the #13-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year. Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offenses projects to runs 38.7% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.In terms of efficiency, New England's defense has allowed 4.28 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#11-least in football).Patriots safeties have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 37.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.73. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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