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D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans
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Right now, D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 72.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 74.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 72.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Tennessee's ranks #3 in that regard this season.His carry rate of 44.6% this year puts him in the #72 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Foreman for a 20.6% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Titans are a 10.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.Tennessee has been the #2-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 44.8% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #7-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 47.7% of their plays.The Texans defense has allowed 145 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #31-least in football.The Houston Texans have allowed 4.89 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #30-best in the metric this season.The linebackers of Houston have been the #26-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Houston have been the #30-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Foreman finds himself in the #84 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 62 yards.This year, the Titans have played in 3 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #19-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 0-mph wind in this game.In a neutral context, Tennessee has run the #27-fastest paced offense this season.Tennessee has faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (22.7% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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His 34.2% snap rate this year puts him in the #55 percentile among running backs.The Tennessee Titans are projected to run 62.0 plays in this matchup, the #18-most on the game slate.The defensive ends of Houston have been the #21-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Houston have been the #16-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Texans have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #11-most in the NFL this year at 15.9% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Foreman to exceed his player prop total 61.2% of the time. He projects for 90.5 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $16.67. That makes its return on investment yield +15%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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