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D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins
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Right now, D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 44.7 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Tennessee's ranks #3 in that regard this season.His carry rate of 41.0% this year puts him in the #68 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Foreman for a 10.0% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Titans enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Tennessee has been the #2-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 44.0% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #6-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 47.6% of their plays.
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CONS:
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This year, the Titans have played in 3 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #19-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.In a neutral context, Tennessee has run the #26-fastest paced offense this season.The Dolphins defense has allowed 102 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #7-least in football.The defensive ends of Miami have been the #4-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Tennessee has faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (22.7% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Dolphins have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #9-most in the NFL this year at 18.2% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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His 30.2% snap rate this year puts him in the #49 percentile among running backs.The Tennessee Titans are projected to run 63.2 plays in this matchup, the #14-most on the game slate.The Miami Dolphins have allowed 4.45 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #15-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Miami have been the #17-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Miami have been the #22-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Miami have been the #15-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Foreman to exceed his player prop total 66.1% of the time. He projects for 65.5 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $28.79. That makes its return on investment yield +26%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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