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D'Onta Foreman

D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12

New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
D'Onta Foreman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 47.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 46.5 @ -115.
  • The Tennessee Titans offensive line has ranked #5 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Foreman is projected for 22.8% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #95 percentile among running backs.
  • This offense runs the ball 43.0% of the time in a neutral context (#3 in the NFL), and they project to run 43.0% of the time in this contest.
  • Patriots defensive ends have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Patriots defensive tackles have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • The Tennessee Titans have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Titans project to run 61.5 total plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.
  • Tennessee is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • The New England Patriots have ranked #10 against the run this year, holding opponents to 102 yards per game on the ground.
  • Patriots linebackers have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked box 21.8% of the time this season -- #2-most in football.
  • The New England Patriots have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.5% of the time this season, ranking as the #8 most in the league.

  • Tennessee has played in the #13-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year. Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • This offenses projects to runs 38.7% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
  • In terms of efficiency, New England's defense has allowed 4.28 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#11-least in football).
  • Patriots safeties have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 51.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.4% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $2.07. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.

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