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Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Right now, Donovan Peoples-Jones Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 41.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 40.7 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 39.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Peoples-Jones ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 78.1% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Peoples-Jones ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 82.7% of Cleveland's dropbacks this season.Peoples-Jones ranks in the #80 percentile and has put up 9.24 yards per target this season.This year, the Browns have played in the #2-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.Cleveland's O-Line grades out as the #10-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Peoples-Jones open.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Browns have faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.7%).
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CONS:
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Peoples-Jones's 58.5% completion rate marks him in the #23 percentile among receivers.The weather forecast for this game calls for 19-mph wind. This is important because high winds lead to fewer pass completions.As a unit, the Bengals cornerbacks rank #3 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Cleveland has run the #25-fastest paced offense this season.The Browns enter as a 6.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects Cleveland to drop back to pass on 49.4% of their plays in this game (#30-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of earning targets, Peoples-Jones ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 14.6% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Peoples-Jones for a 1.9% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Bengals's pass defense ranks #16-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 159 yards per game this season.The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed 8.26 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #19-highest among NFL opponents.The Cincinnati Bengals rank #21-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 66.9%.As a unit, the Bengals safeties rank #15 in pass coverage.The Cleveland Browns are projected to run 61.9 plays in this matchup, the #21-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 59.2% of the time (#22 in the NFL).Cleveland has run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Peoples-Jones to exceed his player prop total 39.2% of the time. He projects for 30.4 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $13.83. That makes its return on investment yield +12%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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