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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears
DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 57.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -115.
  • Metcalf has been on the field for 83.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 87.2% of Seattle's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #82 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 26.7% -- #95 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #5-most yards per target (9.01) against the Bears this season.
  • Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the #29 unit in pass coverage.
  • Chicago Bears safeties rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have had the #3-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Seahawks project to run 63.7 plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 62.7% of the time in a neutral context (#11 in the NFL).

  • CONS:
  • Seattle is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 52.1% of the time in this contest (#31 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Metcalf's offensive line has been #26 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Seattle has faced the #28-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.2%).

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Metcalf is projected for -1.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #42 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.18 yards per target this season, ranking in the #54 percentile.
  • Metcalf has been in the #36 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 60.8% completion rate.
  • Chicago's defense has allowed 160 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#13-most in football).
  • The Bears have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.1% of their targets this season, (#13-most in the league).
  • The Seahawks offensive line has given the QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#22-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Seattle Seahawks have run play-action on 25.1% of their passes this year, #19-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 59.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.6% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $2.45. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.

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