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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Houston Texans vs Seattle Seahawks
DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 59.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 62.5 @ -115.
  • Metcalf has been on the field for 83.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 86.8% of Seattle's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #82 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 25.1% -- #91 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.08 yards per target this season, ranking in the #70 percentile.
  • Houston's defense has allowed 171 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#8-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #1-most yards per target (9.58) against the Texans this season.
  • The Texans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 69.0% of their targets this season, (#7-most in the league).
  • Houston Texans cornerbacks rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.
  • Houston Texans safeties rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offense passes the ball 63.5% of the time in a neutral context (#10 in the NFL).

  • CONS:
  • Seattle is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Metcalf's offensive line has been #26 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Seattle has faced the #28-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.2%).

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Metcalf is projected for -0.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #52 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Metcalf has been in the #51 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 64.4% completion rate.
  • The Seahawks project to run 62.8 plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.
  • This offenses projects to pass 55.1% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Seahawks offensive line has given the QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#22-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Seattle Seahawks have run play-action on 25.1% of their passes this year, #19-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 73.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.7% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $9.08. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.

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