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D.J. Moore Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
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Right now, D.J. Moore Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 59.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 62.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Moore ranks in the #93 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 86.7% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Moore ranks in the #93 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 92.7% of Carolina's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Moore ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 28.8% of passes this season.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.The Saints's pass defense ranks #25-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 169 yards per game this season.In a neutral context, Carolina has run the #10-fastest paced offense this season.The Panthers are a 7.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Carolina to drop back to pass on 64.1% of their plays in this game (#3-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Panthers have faced the #4-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.7%).
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CONS:
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Moore's 60.4% completion rate marks him in the #32 percentile among receivers.The Carolina Panthers are projected to run 60.8 plays in this matchup, the #29-most on the game slate.Carolina's O-Line grades out as the #32-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Moore open.Carolina has run play-action on 23.7% of their passes this year, #24-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Moore for a -0.3% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Moore ranks in the #39 percentile and has put up 7.73 yards per target this season.The New Orleans Saints have allowed 8.42 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #20-highest among NFL opponents.The New Orleans Saints rank #11-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.2%.As a unit, the Saints cornerbacks rank #12 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Saints safeties rank #11 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 59.6% of the time (#21 in the NFL).Carolina's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.45 seconds on average this year (#17-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Moore to exceed his player prop total 64.3% of the time. He projects for 80.3 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $23.20. That makes its return on investment yield +20%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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