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D.J. Moore Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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D.J. Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 52.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Moore has been on the field for 86.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #93 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 93.0% of Carolina's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #93 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 29.3% -- #98 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.The Panthers project to run 65.8 plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.Carolina is a 11.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Carolina has faced the #4-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.7%).
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CONS:
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Opposing wideouts have put up the #31-most yards per target (7.20) against the Buccaneers this season.The Buccaneers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 63.5% of their targets this season, (#25-most in the league).Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the #6 unit in pass coverage.Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the #4 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 59.1% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL).Moore's offensive line has been #32 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Carolina Panthers have run play-action on 23.7% of their passes this year, #24-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Moore is projected for 0.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #58 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.81 yards per target this season, ranking in the #43 percentile.Moore has been in the #33 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 60.4% completion rate.Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 159 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#14-most in football).The Carolina Panthers have had the #13-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offenses projects to pass 58.7% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Panthers offensive line has given the QB 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#17-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 76.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 66.2% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $27.39. It's return on investment would yeild 24%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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