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D.J. Moore Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers
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D.J. Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 54.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Moore has been on the field for 85.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #91 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 93.3% of Carolina's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #94 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 28.5% -- #97 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Miami's defense has allowed 195 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#2-most in football).Miami Dolphins cornerbacks rank as the #25 unit in pass coverage.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Carolina has faced the #4-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.9%).
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.99 yards per target this season, ranking in the #31 percentile.Moore has been in the #26 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 62.4% completion rate.Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the #6 unit in pass coverage.This offenses projects to pass 52.7% of the time in this contest (#28 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Moore's offensive line has been #26 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Carolina Panthers have run play-action on 22.6% of their passes this year, #26-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Moore is projected for -1.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #40 percentile among wide receivers.Opposing wideouts have put up the #13-most yards per target (8.55) against the Dolphins this season.The Dolphins have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.7% of their targets this season, (#12-most in the league).The Carolina Panthers have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Panthers project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 60.1% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL).The Panthers offensive line has given the QB 2.46 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#18-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 66.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $12.43. It's return on investment would yeild 11%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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